Sales of Existing Homes Rebound in September
Demand for homes and builder confidence remains strong, despite low inventory and ongoing supply chain issues. Initial Jobless Claims hit another important milestone, while the Fed revised an important forecast. Builder confidence rose at the highest monthly pace since last November, per the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index.
MBS Roadsigns 10-18-21
After the markets were closed Monday for Columbus Day, inflation data, employment news and the Fed minutes made plenty of headlines. Consumer inflation rose by 0.4% in September, in line with expectations, per the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The year-over-year reading increased from 5.3% to 5.4%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, Core CPI remained at 4%.
MBS Road Signs 10-4-21
The last week of September was jam-packed with news on housing, inflation, and jobless claims.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that prices rose 1.6% from June to July and they were up a record 20% annually. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loan amounts, also showed strong appreciation. Home prices rose 1.4% from June to July and 19% year over year.
The Fed Indicated Rates Could Start Rising in 2022
The Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) is the central banking system of the U.S. The Fed supports the U.S. economy with monetary policy. They recently met to discuss and comment on policy.
The Fed indicated it could start raising rates in 2022. These are charges for overnight loans from bank to bank and will often indirectly impact mortgage rates.
MBS Road Signs 9-27-21
Housing data and the Fed meeting highlighted a jam-packed week of news for the markets to digest.
Sales of existing homes fell 2% from July to August, reaching an annual pace of 5.88 million units. Much-needed inventory also ticked lower, unfortunately, falling 1.5% from July to August and 13% year over year.
However, sales of new homes beat expectations, rising 1.5% from July to August. There were also positive revisions to July’s data, which means the gain is really like a 4.5% rise month over month.
MBS Road Signs 9-7-21
August brought disappointing news from the labor sector, as job growth was much lower than expected. Meanwhile, home price appreciation continues at a record-setting pace.
Just 235,000 jobs were created in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported, which was much lower than expectations of 750,000 new jobs. However, positive revisions to the data for June and July adding 134,000 new jobs in those months combined took some of the stings out of the disappointing news. The Unemployment Rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2% but an increase may be ahead, as explained below.
MBS Road Signs 8-30-21
A summary and detailed description of this month’s real estate and mortgage trends for August 2021.
MBS Road Signs 8-16-21
A detailed description of real estate and mortgage trends for August 2021.
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Record High Housing Inflation
The Fed’s favored measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed that headline inflation was up 0.6% in April, which was in line with estimates. Year over year the index increased from 2.4% to 3.6%, which is the hottest reading in 13 years!
Housing Inventory Making History in 2021!
Well, home values are at an all-time high, home equity at an all-time high, and interest rates are still at historic lows. Who would have thought we would be in this position a year ago? If you are thinking of selling your home, you may reap a healthy profit; however, if you are then to buy a new home you would be paying top dollar.
Housing Inventory and Rising Lumber Prices
Housing Starts, which measure the start of construction on homes, fell 10.3% in February and 9.3% year over year. Starts on single-family homes were also down almost 9% from January to February and were pretty flat compared to February of last year. Bad weather across the US is the likely culprit for the decline.
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Existing-Home Sales Soar
Housing Starts were also on the rise in July, up 22.6% from June and coming in 23.4% higher when compared to last July. Though the gain was mostly in Multifamily Starts, Single-Family Starts were up a solid 8.2%.
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MSHDA Full Appraisal Requirements are Back
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On June 1, Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed Executive Order 2020-110, rescinding Michigan’s “Safer at Home” order.